Monday, July 21, 2008

Charlie Manuel Does Not Understand Probabilities, Tactical Management Abilities Suffering Signifcantly As A Result

Philly.com poll confirms charlie manuel is an idiot for taking pat burrell out of games
Wow. Shocking. Didn't realize it was that blatantly obvious. Oh, wait. Yes we did.

Fucking A.

Pat Burrell was again removed early from a close game yesterday. It was in the eighth inning and it was for “defensive purposes.”

To be clear, there is no defending such a move. Charlie Manuel is simply wrong and anyone who understands basic mathematics can see as much.

Pat Burrell has ZERO errors. Add to that the fact that Pat Burrell is tied for the Major League lead in outfield assists among left fielders.

Then ask who are you going to replace him with? So Taguchi? The man can barely catch. Bruntlett? Bruntlett is an infielder, who is, at best, serviceable as an outfielder. However, see how well Bruntlett does throwing someone out at the plate. Or second base. Or Third base.

And that’s just in the field. By removing Burrell from your line-up for defense, you’re also taking away from your offense the FIFTH MOST EFFECTIVE HITTER in all of baseball right now — Burrell’s OPS of 1.000 is fifth in the Majors. (Behind Pujols, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman and Milton Bradley.) Oh, and in case you haven't noticed, the Phillies offense kind of sucks right now without him.

The probability of his less-than-stellar range in the field negatively affecting the outcome of the game in the last two innings is very, very small. In fact, the removal of his a) bat, b) accurate and strong arm in the field and c) error-free, consistent fielding will actually result in a greater probability for his absence to negatively affect the outcome of the game.

There simply is no longer any debate as to whether Burrell should be finishing games or not. His offense negates any and all perceived defensive shortcomings. You simply can’t afford to NOT have him in your line-up.

(Also, the Phillies are so terrible at manufacturing runs these days that there is similarly almost never a valid argument for pinch-running for him when he gets on first base.)
Pat Burrell was not happy with manager Charlie Manuel's decision to remove him late in yesterday's 11-inning loss to the Florida Marlins.

"I'm upset, absolutely," Burrell said. "I'm upset, and I have been for a long time. It's not personal. I don't want to ever come out of close games."
[…]
Burrell had been 5 for 12 with two doubles and two home runs in the series. His would-be spot in the lineup came up in the top of the 11th, and Bruntlett hit a soft leadoff pop-up to second, dropping him to .231 on the season.
Pat is smart too. He knows what to say. And being the gentleman that he is, he doesn’t directly question Manuel. Which is good because that’s where we come in. And we are going to question the shit out of him.
Burrell did not raise his voice or show much emotion as he voiced his displeasure with Manuel's strategy.

"In that situation, we're trying to put more speed out there, so I can't question what the manager is trying to do. He's got confidence in all his guys," Burrell said. "But I can't lie and say I'm not frustrated by it, especially when it's close like that in a low-scoring game. He knows that. We've discussed it.

"Do I wish it was different? Absolutely. I don't know any other way to say that. A lot of games I've come out, it's never an issue, but when it does come back to bite us, it becomes more of a focus."
Actually, It’s been “more of a focus” for some time now. It’s been a bonehead move since at least this point of last season.

So thank you to Jim Salisbury for finally asking Burrell about it and for finally printing the fucking article.

Taking Burrell out of games early costs the team wins, and considering the Phillies are in a tight, three-way race for the division, you would assume they would want to do whatever it takes to win.

I.e. play Pat Burrell the entire game in the position he can play better than anyone on your team.

This, dear readers, is definitely not rocket science.

Related:
Burrell unhappy about being removed [ Philadelphia Inquirer ]

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